At the start of the Volta a Catalunya this year, a race he went on to dominate with the overall, four stage wins, the points and mountains competitions all coming home with the Slovenian, Tadej Pogacar was asked whether he was thinking about his place in cycling history. “Yeah,” he replied, “Now I have arrived at this point where I really strive to be the best ever.”
The Best Ever is of course a title that has only been attributed to one man since he came to prominence – Eddy Merckx. Fausto Coppi may have been the Campionissimo – the champion of champions – but Merckx has the records for so many races that he stands above everyone with a near-untouchable status. That he now shares the Tour de France stage win record with Mark Cavendish is a testament to the Manxman’s perseverance and skill, yet he still has to talk about “equalling Merckx’s record” rather than the fact they both share it.
It’s Monument season though, and Merckx, it goes without saying, has the record for the most wins there. The Belgian is on 19, almost double his nearest challenger, Roger de Vlaeminck, on 11, and has been on 30 Monument podiums, nine ahead of de Vlaeminck again, on 21. By comparison, Pog is on five wins, and seven podiums. So what sort of trajectory is he on?
Monument Winners
Here, plotted against the age when they won each Monument, is a chart of all 23 riders who have won five or more Monuments in their careers so far. You can select individual riders by putting their name in the “Enter series to show” bar to compare a couple against one another.
The scary thing is that even though Pogacar won his first monument at 22, he was still over two years behind Merckx when he first took a victory. Pog has closed that gap to 1.2 years by his fifth win, but he has a few issues to overcome.
Firstly, the “easiest monument to finish but the hardest to win”, Milan San Remo, is where Merckx holds a record seven wins. Merckx never went more than two years of career without winning it, and so Pogacar, who is on track to win it for the first time in 2026 if his run of results continues (5th, 4th, 3rd), needs to find a way to crack it. On the plus side, Pogacar has equalled a Merckxian record of winning a Monument three times in a row in Il Lombardia, so he’s keeping pace in a manner.
Secondly, Pogacar has to actually improve his strike rate. As Merckx only won two Monuments in a season once, compared to Pogacar’s twice, he might feel encouraged – if it wasn’t for the reason for this being that Merckx won three in a season in four separate seasons.
Finally, avoiding “gaps.” Merckx went from Spring 1973 to the start of 1975 without winning a Monument, but otherwise won one every year of his career. Pogacar has managed this every year since 2021 (the current season not withstanding), but as was seen with his crash out of Liege last year, it doesn’t take much to break the streak.
Monument Podiums
Looking at podiums is a similar story. Pogacar “only” has seven, and this list otherwise only includes riders with nine or more podiums (such as Van der Poel – for comparison, his rival Van Aert has seven podiums as well, plus five silver medals at the World Road race, TT and Olympics)
Again, Merckx is essentially two years ahead of Pogacar – he had 15 Monument podiums by this age, compare to Pogacar’s five. Pogacar’s strike rate is arguably better though: he has competed in 13 Monuments, winning 5 – a 38% win rate. Merckx only won three of his first thirteen monuments (still 23%), but ended up with a win rate of 36%.
Pogacar is on the same trajectory as Roger de Vlaeminck at the moment, but to match Merckx’s wins, with a current rate of 1.25 monuments a year from 2020 till 2023, he’d have to keep that up for a further 11+ years – until he’s 36. Merckx, it should be remembered, retired at 32.
Age shall not weary them?
So Pog might have to keep winning Monuments until he’s 36. Is there much precedent for that? The good news for the Slovenian is that, at 25, he’s still under the age where most Monument wins are taken:
The bad news is that wins drop off quite quickly after 26, and that Paris Roubaix is the preserve of older men, not that he’s planning tackling it until he’s older.
If we look at the Age profiles of each Monument though, in terms of the age of winners, the running average, and a three year rolling average, there has been a trend for winners to be getting ever so steadily older – bar for Il Lombardia, which Pogacar has seemingly singlehandedly reduced the rolling average for by winning the last three editions:
Does Pogacar has a chance then? Well, of course, and to utilise the commentator’s cliche, if anyone does, it’s him. It’s a low chance though, considering the competition for, well every Monument, and how Milan San Remo no longer suits just being able to bludgen people to death as it did in Merckx’s day. Winning all five monuments seems more within Pogacar’s grasp. One thing’s for sure though – it’ll be fun to watch.
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